Compute Capital Stack: Capacity procurement economics

Frontier compute is priced at the megawatt.

Inference turns product demand into physical load: accelerator-hours, power draw, site readiness, contract timing. A low-priced megawatt only matters if it arrives when the load does. The plan is a phased portfolio: grid-blended power carries the load that can be served today, and direct PPAs, stranded-power capture, and nuclear-linked supply take share as each one earns the deliverability to do so. Contracted third-party operators sit in the control layer, above the power-source stack.

updated 2026-06-30cost curve memo

Operating call

Discount the queue, then fund the upper band

Discount requested capacity before planning against it, price the carry when commitments outrun transfer, then fund the upper edge of the cost cone while firm-source caps prove they can deliver.

  1. Discount requested MW before planning against it

    The queue is a demand signal. Delivered operating capacity is the planning base.

  2. Price the timing gap

    Take-or-pay commitment can outrun validated transfer, and the paid-but-undeliverable wedge is the carry.

  3. Fund the upper edge of the cone

    The central path bends down in real dollars, but the capacity plan has to survive the FY2040 p95.

  4. Pick a portfolio the caps can hold

    Residual grid-blended capacity is finite and scarcity-priced. Direct PPAs, stranded capture, and N-SMR enter only at the pace their caps allow.

  5. Mark the contract against replacement cost

    A below-basis price can work because the seller is reusing brownfield assets, but the buyer still accepts a long lockup.

  6. Separate memory and accelerator supply

    Accelerator classes and the memory-and-rack stack bind on different schedules. One blended hardware row hides the earlier bottleneck.

  7. Raise firm-source caps only where deliverability is real

    Retired nuclear, PJM, and ERCOT enter as deliverability gates. A low-priced megawatt with no delivery path stays out of the plan.

  8. Prefer zones with deepening negative-price hours

    ComEd and Dominion share a grid and have moved apart since 2023. Deepening negative-price hours fit flexible inference load.

  9. Benchmark on the hub, finance on the node

    West-Texas hub history is the deliverable benchmark. Nodal upside becomes financeable once a site absorbs stranded power.

  10. Use market prices as context

    The tape explains margin pools and repricing pressure. Procurement terms move only when prices change deliverability, financing cost, or vendor pricing power.

Exhibit 1

Requested megawatts overstate usable capacity

Size procurement against delivered capacity. The LBNL queue shows millions of MW requested, withdrawn, active, and completed; the stream that reaches operation is a small fraction of that total, and it is the first constraint on every later cost path.

Queue reality

Most requested power never becomes usable capacity

The queue is vast; the delivered stream is thin. On the all-requested lens, only 8.4% has reached operation, which means a clean 1 GW request becomes 84 MW you can plan against.

Conversion8.4%Operational561.5 GWWithdrawn4,396 GWActive1,745 GW
Median COD3.5 yrP90 COD7.0 yrCOD records3,146Aging cutoff7 yr

2019+ cohorts are still aging; read those conversion shares as observed floors that will keep rising.

050607080910111213141516171819202122232425
1,000 MW announced84 MW still in play
1 GW request becomes 84 MW under the current lens. The released cohort is a 1,000 MW planning basis run through the selected survival rate. The interior gates animate the flow; only the end-to-end survival rate is source-backed.
Step 1 / 3Requested MW is only the intake.

The queue is a demand signal. Capacity earns a place in the supply plan by surviving the gates.

Data behind the queue field
LBNL queued capacity through 2025, with the workbook parity check marked matched.
LensEnteringReaches operationSurvival1 GW request
All requested6,703 GW561.5 GW8.4%84 MW
Still active1,745 GW561.5 GW32.2%322 MW
2015-2019 cohorts1,154 GW148.4 GW12.9%129 MW

Every active, withdrawn, or completed MW in the cumulative LBNL queue vintage.

National conversion by entry-year cohort. Cohorts after 2018 are still aging against the 7-year COD horizon.
Entry yearProjectsMW totalOperationalPendingAging
199510.3 GW0.0%0.0%Matured
1997198.7 GW80.9%0.0%Matured
19986829.5 GW50.8%1.2%Matured
1999204108 GW25.6%1.0%Matured
2000304127.6 GW12.3%0.1%Matured
2001528167.1 GW9.0%0.6%Matured
200227660 GW17.2%0.0%Matured
200332661.2 GW22.2%1.6%Matured
200431859 GW23.5%0.6%Matured
200551690 GW26.2%1.2%Matured
2006760160.4 GW14.9%2.2%Matured
20071,125273.7 GW12.6%2.7%Matured
20081,228263.6 GW6.3%0.9%Matured
2009857108.1 GW12.7%3.3%Matured
20101,266119.1 GW12.9%2.1%Matured
20111,000124.7 GW11.6%3.4%Matured
201259289.5 GW19.9%1.9%Matured
201368783.8 GW29.9%3.7%Matured
2014943125.6 GW24.7%5.9%Matured
20151,145144.2 GW24.5%9.8%Matured
20161,669208.9 GW17.0%11.2%Matured
20171,866236.5 GW13.1%19.9%Matured
20182,044308.7 GW8.2%20.7%Matured
20192,329340.8 GW8.0%28.9%Observed floor
20202,569353.5 GW4.5%31.2%Observed floor
20213,135512.2 GW2.0%38.2%Observed floor
20223,435649.3 GW0.6%44.1%Observed floor
20233,400799.8 GW1.3%33.1%Observed floor
20242,603530.1 GW0.0%53.0%Observed floor
20252,323542.2 GW0.2%82.5%Observed floor
2015-2019 regional cohorts, aggregated on MW. This is the regional replacement for a single national queue haircut.
RegionProjectsMW totalOperationalWithdrawnPending
ERCOT672123.1 GW26.2%46.5%27.4%
Southeast1,213145.1 GW14.0%77.4%8.6%
MISO1,070174.4 GW14.0%64.2%21.8%
SPP736127.8 GW12.6%67.4%20.0%
PJM2,148217.9 GW11.1%70.9%18.0%
West1,815244 GW8.8%67.6%23.6%
CAISO580121.4 GW8.1%69.6%22.3%
Exhibit 2

Contract timing creates paid-but-undeliverable capacity

Negotiate delivery timing before the carry becomes the economics. The queue haircut tells you what may never arrive; the carry wedge prices what arrives late after the billing has started. Contracted MW above validated transfer is a timing exposure with a dollar figure.

Carry wedge

You can pay for power before it arrives

The commitment schedule climbs to 960 MW. The validated transfer ceiling is 480 MW. Take-or-pay billing follows the calendar; the grid follows deliverability. The difference is the carry.

Validated ceiling480 MWPeak gap480 MWPeak annual carry$55.0M–$71.2MTerm carry$688M–$890M
Step 1 / 3The commitment climbs past the grid ceiling.

The minimum commitment climbs 120 MW a year until it reaches 960 MW. The validated transfer ceiling holds at 480 MW, and above that line commitment and deliverability split.

Contracted take-or-pay ramp against validated transfer ceilingThe contracted ramp steps from 120 MW to 960 MW across an 18-year initial term. The horizontal line marks the validated 480 MW transfer ceiling. The shaded area above the ceiling is committed capacity that is not yet deliverable.0240480720960Validated transfer ceiling · 480 MWcontracted ramp to 960 MWY1Y4Y8Y12Y18Contract year · MW minimum commitment

Drag the ceiling line or the slider to test a what-if; the filed 480 MW anchor stays.

Data behind the carry wedge
Take-or-pay minimum commitment by contract year. The what-if ceiling recomputes values from the filed ramp and does not replace the 480 MW anchor.
Contract yearContracted MWDeliverable at 480 MWStranded MWCarry range
Y1120 MW120 MW0 MW$0.0M–$0.0M
Y2240 MW240 MW0 MW$0.0M–$0.0M
Y3360 MW360 MW0 MW$0.0M–$0.0M
Y4480 MW480 MW0 MW$0.0M–$0.0M
Y5600 MW480 MW120 MW$13.8M–$17.8M
Y6720 MW480 MW240 MW$27.5M–$35.6M
Y7840 MW480 MW360 MW$41.3M–$53.4M
Y8960 MW480 MW480 MW$55.0M–$71.2M
Y9960 MW480 MW480 MW$55.0M–$71.2M
Y10960 MW480 MW480 MW$55.0M–$71.2M
Y11960 MW480 MW480 MW$55.0M–$71.2M
Y12960 MW480 MW480 MW$55.0M–$71.2M
Y13960 MW480 MW480 MW$55.0M–$71.2M
Y14960 MW480 MW480 MW$55.0M–$71.2M
Y15960 MW480 MW480 MW$55.0M–$71.2M
Y16960 MW480 MW480 MW$55.0M–$71.2M
Y17960 MW480 MW480 MW$55.0M–$71.2M
Y18960 MW480 MW480 MW$55.0M–$71.2M

The carry range is the transfer-blocked MW multiplied by the two capacity-charge anchors. PJM hourly surplus in the same local engine reads 9.0 TWh, but surplus energy does not cross a transfer ceiling.

Exhibit 3

Real unit cost falls while nominal cost still rises

Size capacity procurement to the p95 band, then work backward to deliverable megawatts. Each delivered megawatt becomes tokens served, so the unit cost that matters from here is dollars per million tokens. The central path holds near $2.90 per million tokens nominal across the first six fiscal years, then bends down in real terms as direct PPAs, stranded capture, and nuclear-linked capacity take share while residual grid capacity reprices with utilization. From FY2032 the nominal figure settles near $3.12 as power escalates; the same path reads $2.44 in real FY2026 dollars. A 2,000-draw Monte Carlo sets the band around it.

The capacity plan needs room for the FY2040 upper band

The central forecast stays near $2.90 per million tokens nominal across the first six fiscal years. From FY2032 it reads $2.44 in real FY2026 dollars and $3.12 in nominal dollars. The 90% confidence fan comes from 2,000 Monte Carlo draws around that path; the hairline lattice traces 64of those draws individually, so the spread reads as individual cost paths. P95 is the fan's upper edge: the cost the plan has to be able to fund. Dashed reference paths keep the bear, base, and bull scenarios visible inside the fan.

Portfolio-mean risk-adjusted cost of intelligence, real FY2026 dollars, FY2026 to FY2040A widening 90% confidence fan from Monte Carlo draws plus a representative lattice of exported CoI fan paths. The central forecast stays on the Base path. The highlighted upper confidence band is p95, and the dashed scenario reference paths keep bear and bull visible inside the fan.$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.0064 exported paths · 2,000 MC drawsp95 · FY2040 $4.57central · FY2040 $2.26p05 · FY2040 $1.24202720322032203320262028203020322034203620382040Fiscal yearCost per million tokens, US dollars
Each marker is a decision boundary in the portfolio. Hover a node to read the trigger and the contingency that must hold.

RA equals the workbook delay haircut: RiskHaircut multiplied by delay-years. Backtests favored the direct construction-delay penalty over a priced composite.

The demand cone uses the court-sworn recognized-revenue floor and company-stated run-rate observations. Run-rate observations are operating scale markers and are not recognized revenue. Capacity caps remain deliverability judgments.

Method notes and forecast boundaries
  • Every reading ships the cap-constrained merit-order portfolio, a priced deliverability premium, and a weight roadmap across structures.
  • Caps are stated deliverability judgments at stage; no cap is a contract. Measured series bound them (queue conversion cohorts, West-hub negative-hour shares, N-SMR COD windows), and the decision values inherit that judgment status.
  • The demand cone behind every volume uses company-stated run-rate inputs, while the court-sworn recognized-revenue floor remains the lower-bound check.
  • Both drift readings ship: cone volumes use the shared Base drift assumption and each scenario's own drift column, and the bear reading moves materially between them.
  • The N-SMR leg prices Option 1 delivered energy and starts at the U1 COD; Option 1 excludes the exclusivity premium, credits, and post-2038 step-ups. Option 1 stays by decision: pricing the first 2038 step into the portfolio book moves NPV savings -0.3% (bear) to -3.1% (bull), and stepping this leg alone would match neither contract book.
  • The risk discount remains a construction-delay penalty. The priced composite backtested unstable; NPVs are sensitivity outputs around construction timing and delivered-power risk.
  • Each row prices the next gigawatt from one source at FY2026 conditions; availability caps bind at the portfolio level and feed the mix roadmap.
  • The cone behind the strip uses company-stated run-rate rows as volume cases; the court-sworn recognized-revenue floor remains the lower-bound check.
  • The risk discount remains a construction-delay penalty. Backtests found the priced composite unstable, so the risk adjustment stays on the judgment score.
  • The N-SMR row prices Option 1 delivered energy at the U2 COD year (2033) and carries the longest delay risk; component prices are stated assumptions. Option 1 excludes the exclusivity premium, credits, and post-2038 step-ups; the all-in delivered price runs ~$3.4/MWh higher at 2033 (RA CoI +~0.01 $/MTok; no ranking change).
Portfolio-mean risk-adjusted cost of intelligence per million tokens. The central line stays on the Base forecast; p95 and p05 are the outer Monte Carlo confidence bands.
Fiscal yearCentralp95p05
2026$2.74$3.68$2.21
2027$2.74$3.77$2.17
2028$2.73$3.86$2.13
2029$2.79$3.95$2.17
2030$2.71$3.98$2.06
2031$2.66$4.00$1.98
2032$2.62$4.05$1.91
2033$2.58$4.11$1.82
2034$2.50$4.17$1.70
2035$2.47$4.24$1.62
2036$2.43$4.31$1.54
2037$2.39$4.37$1.47
2038$2.35$4.44$1.41
2039$2.32$4.47$1.35
2040$2.26$4.57$1.24

Cause: procurement mix

Real cost falls while residual grid capacity reprices

The fiscal-year rows show the mechanism: residual grid falls to 0.0% of the mix in FY2029 as firm-source caps open, demand beyond those finite caps stays visible as unmet capacity, and the real cost path falls anyway.

Fiscal yearFY2026central real path$2.74Nominal budget$2.74Demand2.8 GWResidual-grid share100.0%
Step 1 / 3The real cost path falls.

FY2026 starts at $2.74 per million tokens; the central real path reaches $2.26 by FY2040. Escalation still lifts the nominal budget to $3.19, and both lines have to be funded.

Portfolio mix and risk-adjusted cost path by fiscal yearThe upper panel shows central real cost, nominal cost, and real p05 to p95 percentile bands from FY2026 to FY2040. The lower panel shows the sourcing-structure mix from the exported glidepath rows. The selected year readout is controlled by a fiscal-year slider.Risk-adjusted cost of intelligence · $ / MTokEffect: cost pathPortfolio share by sourcing structure$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.000.0%50%100%Percentile band · p05 / p10 / p25 / p50 / p75 / p90 / p9564 exported CoI fan paths from 2,000 path-population drawsp10p25p50p75p90Residual low: FY2029 · 0.0%FY2040 · 53.9% residual gridFY2027 · Firm sourcing opensFY2032 · N-SMR first unit energizesFY2032 · Direct-PPA cap saturatesFY2033 · N-SMR fleet ramp beginsFY2026real · FY2040 $2.26nominal · FY2040 $3.19p95 · FY2040 $4.5720262028203020322034203620382040
Real centralNominalp05-p95 bandExported MC draw pathsResidual grid 100.0%Direct PPA 0.0%Stranded capture 0.0%N-SMR PPA 0.0%

Every visible mark and the readout use the same exported fiscal-year rows as the workbook. The strand field is a deterministic subset of the trajectory's Monte Carlo paths; nothing is stylized or re-sampled.

Data behind the crossover
Share of the mix, cost percentiles, and demand by fiscal year.
YearResidual gridDirect PPAStranded captureN-SMR PPAReal FY2026 $/MTokNominal $/MTokp95p90p10p05Demand
FY2026100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%$2.74$2.74$3.68$3.56$2.26$2.212.8 GW
FY202779.9%15.1%5.0%0.0%$2.74$2.81$3.77$3.64$2.23$2.175.0 GW
FY202875.3%18.5%6.2%0.0%$2.73$2.87$3.86$3.70$2.20$2.138.1 GW
FY20290.0%75.0%25.0%0.0%$2.79$3.00$3.95$3.79$2.24$2.1712.0 GW
FY203014.0%64.5%21.5%0.0%$2.71$2.99$3.98$3.80$2.13$2.0616.6 GW
FY20316.5%70.1%23.4%0.0%$2.66$3.01$4.00$3.80$2.05$1.9821.5 GW
FY20329.5%62.0%23.3%5.3%$2.62$3.04$4.05$3.84$1.98$1.9126.5 GW
FY203319.2%52.3%19.6%8.9%$2.58$3.06$4.11$3.88$1.90$1.8231.2 GW
FY203436.0%41.4%15.5%7.0%$2.50$3.05$4.17$3.91$1.78$1.7035.9 GW
FY203544.2%32.5%12.2%11.1%$2.47$3.08$4.24$3.97$1.70$1.6241.3 GW
FY203646.5%28.4%10.6%14.5%$2.43$3.11$4.31$4.01$1.63$1.5447.5 GW
FY203748.3%25.2%9.4%17.1%$2.39$3.13$4.37$4.05$1.56$1.4754.6 GW
FY203844.0%25.2%9.4%21.4%$2.35$3.17$4.44$4.08$1.50$1.4162.8 GW
FY203939.8%25.2%9.4%25.7%$2.32$3.20$4.47$4.12$1.45$1.3572.3 GW
FY204053.9%18.0%6.7%21.4%$2.26$3.19$4.57$4.19$1.34$1.2483.1 GW
Exhibit 4

The procurement mix beats the cheapest source

Buy a changing mix, and let the caps set the pace. Four ways to source the same megawatt produce a wide spread in delivered cost per token. Residual grid-blended capacity is cheapest today and scales without a build, but it is finite and reprices with utilization. Direct PPAs, stranded capture, and N-SMR cost more per token now and bend the curve down later as their caps open. The instrument prices RA CoI for each structure across the bear, base, and bull paths.

Procurement Path Simulator

Compare the full sourcing path against the cheapest row.

The selected structures run through the same scenario strip, effective power, margin, and cap logic as the live cost path. The simulator tests whether a low-priced megawatt can clear the delivery path.

Path diagnostics

Base: Residual grid-blended capacity vs Direct PPA, with availability caps kept visible in the comparison.

Delivered spread
$0.21/MTok
Primary power
$97.20/MWh
Primary margin
$1.12/MTok
show gate reasons
  • Availability caps decide how much of each structure can enter the portfolio mix.
  • Effective power moves the delivered cost before financing or delay haircuts.
  • Negative margin under a scenario marks the path as stressed; the row stays in the table.
AMZN + GOOGL + META + MSFT capex, trailing 4Q ($B): now $434B01002003004002018201920202021202220232024202520262017Q3: $10.50B quarter (annualized dot)2017Q4: $12.78B quarter (annualized dot)2018Q1: $16.14B quarter (annualized dot)2018Q2: $16.16B quarter (annualized dot)2018Q3: $15.58B quarter (annualized dot)2018Q4: $18.82B quarter (annualized dot)2019Q1: $14.33B quarter (annualized dot)2019Q2: $17.37B quarter (annualized dot)2019Q3: $18.35B quarter (annualized dot)2019Q4: $19.01B quarter (annualized dot)2020Q1: $20.12B quarter (annualized dot)2020Q2: $20.85B quarter (annualized dot)2020Q3: $25.07B quarter (annualized dot)2020Q4: $29.14B quarter (annualized dot)2021Q1: $27.42B quarter (annualized dot)2021Q2: $30.88B quarter (annualized dot)2021Q3: $32.72B quarter (annualized dot)2021Q4: $36.58B quarter (annualized dot)2022Q1: $35.52B quarter (annualized dot)2022Q2: $36.99B quarter (annualized dot)2022Q3: $39.31B quarter (annualized dot)2022Q4: $39.26B quarter (annualized dot)2023Q1: $33.93B quarter (annualized dot)2023Q2: $33.42B quarter (annualized dot)2023Q3: $36.95B quarter (annualized dot)2023Q4: $42.93B quarter (annualized dot)2024Q1: $44.29B quarter (annualized dot)2024Q2: $52.85B quarter (annualized dot)2024Q3: $58.86B quarter (annualized dot)2024Q4: $72.34B quarter (annualized dot)2025Q1: $71.90B quarter (annualized dot)2025Q2: $88.25B quarter (annualized dot)2025Q3: $97.27B quarter (annualized dot)2025Q4: $118.63B quarter (annualized dot)2026Q1: $129.75B quarter (annualized dot)

The absorption record, 2017Q3–2026Q1: trend 26.2%/yr (95% CI 21.6%–31.0%), max trailing-4Q drawdown 5.0%, longest decline 3 quarters, 87% of quarters growing y/y.

The cone is compared with that record: 5-year implied load growth per scenario against rolling capex-window growth, where the fastest window in the measured record is 33.5%.

Implied load growth per scenario against the absorption record.
PathImplied load CAGRAgainst the recordUnder its own drift
Bear31.9%inside the record47.4%, above the record
Base50.7%above the recordsame reading
Bull75.6%above the record57.1%, above the record

Cone CAGRs use a shared Base drift assumption for every path (price and efficiency drifts cancel; load growth = revenue growth). Under each scenario's own drift column the bear path reads materially higher: the bear verdict is a Base-drift statement, and the table above shows both readings.

Historical stress storyboards. The capex record tests whether the cone asks for growth the market has absorbed before. Capex dollars proxy compute-demand growth, with no $-to-GW conversion.

  • Fuel / geopolitical shock: leave more residual-grid exposure when fuel-linked procurement cannot clear the upper cone on time.
  • Rate shock: negotiate delivery date, price schedule, and financing carry as one exposure.
  • Credit crunch: stress funded and unfunded offsets before assuming the buildout gets absorbed.
  • Grid absorption pressure: treat the US hyperscaler pipeline as stage-labeled context: gross announced capacity, with powered capacity still the planning constraint.
Compare structures

Base: Residual grid-blended capacity is $0.21/MTok lower cost than Direct PPA. Primary margin is $1.12/MTok, with effective power at $97.20/MWh.

Risk-adjusted $/MTok, FY2026 marginal: bear / base / bull strip per structure$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00$4.50Residual grid-blended capacityband $2.12–$3.81Bear: $3.81/MTok RA (margin $−0.51)Base: $2.73/MTok RA (margin $1.12)Bull: $2.12/MTok RA (margin $2.28)Base $2.73$2.73Direct PPA, validated siteband $2.37–$3.97Bear: $3.97/MTok RA (margin $−0.67)Base: $2.94/MTok RA (margin $0.91)Bull: $2.37/MTok RA (margin $2.03)Base $2.94$2.94Stranded/curtailed captureband $2.49–$4.18Bear: $4.18/MTok RA (margin $−0.88)Base: $3.10/MTok RA (margin $0.75)Bull: $2.49/MTok RA (margin $1.91)Base $3.10$3.10N-SMR PPA (Option 1)band $2.92–$4.72Bear: $4.72/MTok RA (margin $−1.42)Base: $3.57/MTok RA (margin $0.28)Bull: $2.92/MTok RA (margin $1.48)Base $3.57$3.57
StructureRA CoI, BearRA CoI, BaseRA CoI, BullMargin, base
Residual grid-blended capacity$3.81 ◂ best$2.73 ◂ best$2.12 ◂ best$1.12
Direct PPA, validated site$3.97$2.94$2.37$0.91
Stranded/curtailed capture$4.18$3.10$2.49$0.75
N-SMR PPA (Option 1)$4.72$3.57$2.92$0.28

The stated roadmap books $30.58B to $143.16B of NPV savings, measured on the shared Base drift assumption, that the availability caps cannot yet deliver. Residual served load clears through finite grid-blended capacity at scarcity prices; direct PPA, stranded capture, and N-SMR weights rise as deliverable caps open. Contracted third-party operators carry the control layer, and every leg of the mix stays finite.

  • Growth-rate comparison only: total-company capex dollars proxy compute-demand growth, and no $-to-GW conversion is made. The series includes non-data-center spend; AMZN segment additions are captured FY2018-FY2025, while MSFT, GOOGL, and META disclose no segment capex and stay total-company.
  • Each row prices the next gigawatt from one source at FY2026 conditions; availability caps bind at the portfolio level and feed the mix roadmap.
  • The cone behind the strip uses company-stated run-rate rows as volume cases; the court-sworn recognized-revenue floor remains the lower-bound check.
  • The risk discount remains a construction-delay penalty. Backtests found the priced composite unstable, so the risk adjustment stays on the judgment score.
  • The N-SMR row prices Option 1 delivered energy at the U2 COD year (2033) and carries the longest delay risk; component prices are stated assumptions. Option 1 excludes the exclusivity premium, credits, and post-2038 step-ups; the all-in delivered price runs ~$3.4/MWh higher at 2033 (RA CoI +~0.01 $/MTok; no ranking change).

That spread is a budget: it prices what raising validated-site throughput is worth. None of it is savings already in hand.

Exhibit 5

Below new-build cost, for a thirty-year lockup

Weigh the discount against the duration. The contract line is $101.05 per MWh all-in in FY2034, or $75.14 in real 2022 dollars. Set against four nuclear build-cost bases financed at 6 to 9 percent WACC, it prices below the cost of building new across the moderate, conservative, and Vogtle-implied cases, and above only the optimistic advanced build. That does not make the power free money. The seller already controls brownfield infrastructure and can monetize assets it does not have to build from scratch; the buyer takes the other side through an estimated thirty-year, largely illiquid N-SMR commitment. That means execution risk on emerging reactors and no easy exit if the cost curve falls below the strike.

Contract chain: six legs to the all-in figure$101.05/MWh FY2034 · $75.14 real 2022$

Selected legs total $101.05/MWh FY2034, or $75.14 real 2022$. 6 of 6 legs are included.

  1. Capital slotestimate+62.00ESTIMATE: slot value; no quoted figure exists
  2. O&M+29.24contract structure
  3. Fuel+14.41priced by the contract
  4. ITC passthrough−8.00credit to the buyer
  5. Exclusivity, net+8.40netted in the contract
  6. Production credits−5.00credit to the buyer

Dollar slots are labeled estimates; the unavailable contract text is not assumed.

nominal-2034 contract vs real-2022 basis (conservative toward the contract)

Moderate at 7.5% WACC: total basis $115.75/MWh, residual −14.75/MWh under the mixed convention. Capex contributes $85.44; O&M and fuel contribute $30.31.

Cost-basis grid vs the contract lineHorizontal cost bands for four basis trajectories across the 6 to 9 percent WACC range, with the contract line cutting through them and the brownfield wedge off the central basis.$0$50$100$150$200$/MWhAdvancedATB 2024 SMR6.0%+35.487.5%+29.069.0%+22.29ModerateATB 2024 SMR · central6.0%−2.617.5%−14.759.0%−27.53ConservativeATB 2024 SMR6.0%−49.047.5%−67.019.0%−85.94Vogtle actualsimplied floor6.0%−53.547.5%−73.419.0%−94.34Brownfield wedgeoff the central basis, planning sensitivity−$24.70−$10.60$101.05 contract, FY2034 nominal

Central read: Moderate @ 7.5% WACC residual −14.75/MWh (contract sits below the basis under the mixed convention).

Break-even capital slot

After netting the non-capital legs, the total is $39.05/MWh. The capital slot, an estimate held at $62.00, breaks even against the central basis at $76.69 under the active convention.

$0$25$50$75$100$125$62.00 capital slot estimateMixed $76.69Reading A $116.61Reading B $88.77

The mix stays bounded by disclosed and archived records. The absolute price level rests on power-price assumptions, with no tradable benchmark behind it, and the risk adjustment is a construction-delay penalty. The figures are planning outputs; none is an executable price.

Brownfield wedge: 15–35% of OCC ($6,800.00/kW) ⇒ $10.60–24.70/MWh; closing the mixed residual takes 20.9% of OCC

  • Scenario-bound upper bound by the source's own methodology; 15% is not a sourced floor.
  • coal-site reuse extrapolated to retired-nuclear; band top (26-35%) requires steam-cycle reuse usually lost in decommissioning
  • single quantification root (INL/RPT-22-67964, 1988 EEDB basis)
  • base case needs a second root or project filings before it can move beyond the sensitivity band
Assumptions behind each row

Advanced

  • ATB 2024 v3.0.0 Nuclear - Small Advanced CAPEX 2034
  • ATB 2024 v3.0.0 Nuclear - Small Advanced O&M/Fuel 2034
  • ATB 2024 v3.0.0 CF
  • 30y financing life = ATB CRP slice

Moderate

  • ATB 2024 v3.0.0 Nuclear - Small Moderate CAPEX 2034
  • ATB 2024 v3.0.0 Nuclear - Small Moderate O&M/Fuel 2034
  • ATB 2024 v3.0.0 CF
  • 30y financing life = ATB CRP slice

Conservative

  • ATB 2024 v3.0.0 Nuclear - Small Conservative CAPEX 2034
  • ATB 2024 v3.0.0 Nuclear - Small Conservative O&M/Fuel 2034
  • ATB 2024 v3.0.0 CF
  • 30y financing life = ATB CRP slice

Vogtle actuals

  • EIA TIE 61963: Georgia Power estimates >$30B for 2x1,114 MW -> $13,465/kW floor
  • ATB 2024 v3.0.0 Nuclear - Large Moderate O&M/Fuel 2034
  • ATB 2024 v3.0.0 CF
  • 30y financing life
IT stack check

Memory and accelerator mix are separate bottlenecks

Reserve accelerator, memory, and rack supply as separate procurement classes. Power is the gate; the bill of materials is wider. Training, inference, and agent workloads do not all want the same silicon, and supplier allocation belongs in the procurement call itself.

  • Accelerator classNvidia GPUs, Google TPUs, and AWS Trainium stay in separate capacity classes because their economics, depreciation paths, and vendor exposure differ.
  • Memory and rackMemory (HBM/DRAM), storage, networking, and host CPUs can bind before the power contract does.
  • Procurement callMatch each workload to its supply class before committing the order.
Exhibit 6

Retired-nuclear sites screen on deliverability first

Treat every candidate as a deliverability screen before it earns a portfolio cap. The screen starts where power can actually land: grid equipment in place, queue depth, and exposure to low prices. Geolocated candidates carry a published federal coordinate; the remaining census rows stay listed without one.

Interactive procurement map

Priority stranded-energy targets for diligence

13 mapped17 N/A coordinate18,167 MW screened
11 dots / 11,125 MW / 1.00x
Interactive stranded-energy procurement mapUnited States coordinate canvas with geolocated retired-nuclear sites sized by estimated megawatts and highlighted when a PJM price signal is attached.Zion: 2,145 MW, PJMSan Onofre Nuclear Generating Station: 2,254 MW, CAISOIndian Point 2: 1,299 MW, NYISOIndian Point 3: 1,012 MW, NYISOCrystal River: 890 MW, SoutheastDuane Arnold Energy Center: 680 MW, MISOPilgrim Nuclear Power Station: 670 MW, ISO-NEVermont Yankee: 563 MW, ISO-NEKewaunee: 560 MW, MISOOyster Creek: 550 MW, PJMFort Calhoun: 502 MW, SPPCOMEDZionSan OnofreIndian Point 2Indian Point 3Crystal River

Site drill-down

Zion

Prioritize this: large retired-nuclear MW with a current low-price zone signal.

Capacity
2,145 MWnrc-licensed-mwt-x0.33-mwe-estimate
Region screen
PJM: queue share 20.8%, brownfield share 26.1%, 2.48-6.41 GW band.
Price signal
COMED 2026: 8.60% negative / 11.64% below $5
Lead-time read
N/A: owner status, interconnection transfer, permitting, and COD timing still need diligence.
Coordinate
EPA FRS 110012518230 (COMMED/ZION NUCLEAR STATION); INTERPOLATION-PHOTO

A derived screen: the weights are explicit modeling choices, and NRC-derived MW uses a labeled 0.33xMWt conversion. The NRC 2022 census carries no coordinates. Zion, Dresden, and Big Rock Point map from published federal records (EPA FRS / EIA-860 2024, per-site source on the dot); the remaining census rows are listed without a map position. Every plotted coordinate comes from a published federal record.

PJM price layer

COMED is the live low-price screen

  1. AEP0.03%$58.13
  2. ATSI0.10%$52.82
  3. COMED11.64%$31.87
  4. DOM0.03%$99.97
  5. PJM-RTO0.05%$65.19
  6. WESTERN HUB0.34%$71.78
  • Zone pnodes are load-weighted aggregates; generator-bus prices strand deeper.
  • 2026 is partial (through 2026-06-09).

ERCOT price layer

ERCOT nodes stay off-map until they are geocoded

HB_WEST 2026: 20.20% negative hours; 221 West settlement points in the nodal strip.

Node zone membership is a settlement construct; the nodes are NOT geolocated here.

  • Distribution covers full-coverage nodes only (>=90% of the year's hours).
  • Hub (HB_WEST) is the conservative zonal anchor; nodal shares run higher.
  • Geocoding verdict (2026-06-12): no capture-quality coordinate source exists for the settlement-point universe. MIS report 10008 carries zero geographic fields, and ERCOT's contour-map KMLs were discontinued in 2021 at ~27% node coverage; the strip stays non-geographic.

Where the cone lands, 2030

Exploratory

The regional layer ranks queue deliverability and brownfield site supply. The band spans all six cone values at 2030, across both drift readings.

  1. PJM22.9%2.48-6.41 GW
  2. MISO21.9%2.38-6.13 GW
  3. CAISO9.3%1.02-2.62 GW
  4. West8.7%0.94-2.43 GW
  5. ERCOT8.6%0.94-2.42 GW
  6. ISO-NE8.6%0.93-2.39 GW
  7. SPP8.2%0.89-2.29 GW
  8. Southeast6.8%0.74-1.90 GW
  9. NYISO5.0%0.55-1.41 GW

An exploratory screen: the two region-complete signals (queue conversion, brownfield screen) measure different things on different scales, and the mixing weights are judgments. The stranded-price signal covers 2 of 9 regions, so it annotates the map and never enters the weights.

Exhibit 7

PJM: deepening low-price hours beat a rising mean

Prefer the zone where negative-price hours are deepening before underwriting a larger direct-power tranche. ComEd and Dominion sit on the same grid and have moved in opposite directions since 2023: the average can climb while the floor drops out more often.

Share of hours negative0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%2023202420252026*COMEDDOMMean LMP ($/MWh)$0$20$40$60$80$1002023202420252026*COMEDDOM

2026: compare COMED against DOM. Negative-hour exposure differs by +8.60 points, and mean LMP differs by −$68.10/MWh.

6 of 6 zones clear the 0.00% threshold.

ZoneShare negativeShare below $5Mean LMPP10–P90
COMED8.60%11.64%$31.87$2.61 – $64.62
WESTERN HUB0.23%0.34%$71.78$19.83 – $157.47
ATSI0.05%0.10%$52.82$19.53 – $103.67
AEP0.00%0.03%$58.13$19.41 – $117.50
DOM0.00%0.03%$99.97$21.11 – $251.60
PJM-RTO0.00%0.05%$65.19$19.22 – $139.35
  • Zone pnodes are load-weighted aggregates; generator-bus prices strand deeper.
  • 2026 is partial (through 2026-06-09).
Exhibit 8

West-Texas upside finances after absorption is proved

Underwrite the hub, and hold the node as upside. Hub history is the deliverable benchmark for West Texas. The nodal tail runs richer, and it becomes financeable only after a site proves it can absorb stranded power at that node.

All nodes: 23 of 785 nodes clear the 20.0% negative-hour threshold. Top node: ASTRA_RN 23.7%.

HB_WEST hub: share of hours negative, by year0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%11.6%20228.3%20239.8%20247.3%202520.2%2026785 settlement points: share of hours negative (221 West nodes highlighted)quoted 25–30% band0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%ASTRA_RN (LZ_WEST): 23.7% negativeHRFDWIND_ALL (LZ_WEST): 23.7% negativeMARIAH_ALL (LZ_WEST): 23.7% negativeCN_BRKS_UNT1 (LZ_WEST): 23.5% negativeCOTPLNS_RN (LZ_WEST): 23.4% negativeSPLAIN1_RN (LZ_WEST): 23.4% negativeSPLAIN2_RN (LZ_WEST): 23.4% negativeSSPURT_WIND1 (LZ_WEST): 23.4% negativeFRYE_SLR_ALL (LZ_WEST): 23.4% negativeGOODNIT1_ALL (LZ_WEST): 23.2% negativeGRANDVW1_A_B (LZ_WEST): 23.2% negativeROUTE66_RN (LZ_WEST): 23.2% negativeBRISCOE_WIND (LZ_WEST): 23.1% negativeLHORN_N_U1_2 (LZ_WEST): 23.1% negativePH1_UNIT1_2 (LZ_WEST): 23.0% negativePH2_U1_U2 (LZ_WEST): 23.0% negativeMIAM1_G1_G2 (LZ_WEST): 22.8% negativeSLTFRK_UN1_2 (LZ_WEST): 22.8% negativeMISAE_GEN_RN (LZ_WEST): 21.1% negativeCORAZON_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 20.7% negativeTORR_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 20.7% negativeBORDAS_345 (LZ_SOUTH): 20.5% negativeRELOJ_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 20.4% negativeCABEZON_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 19.7% negativePALMWI_UNIT1 (LZ_SOUTH): 18.8% negativeLV4_UNIT_1 (LZ_SOUTH): 18.8% negativeMESTENO_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 18.8% negativeLV3_UNIT1 (LZ_SOUTH): 18.8% negativeCAMWIND_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 18.6% negativeLV3_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 18.6% negativeMIRASOLE_GEN (LZ_SOUTH): 18.3% negativeANEM_ESS_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 18.2% negativeLV1A_LV1B (LZ_SOUTH): 18.0% negativeBBREEZE_1_2 (LZ_SOUTH): 17.9% negativeELSAUZ_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 17.8% negativeCHALUP_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 17.5% negativeAEEC (LZ_WEST): 17.5% negativePALE_ESS_EN (LZ_WEST): 17.5% negativeLMAJADAS_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 17.2% negativeMGSES_CT123 (LZ_WEST): 17.2% negativeMGSES_CT456 (LZ_WEST): 17.2% negativeEL_RAYO_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 16.9% negativeTRUENO_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 16.9% negativeBAFFIN_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 16.4% negativePENA_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 16.4% negativeSTELLA_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 16.4% negativeTGW_T1_T2 (LZ_SOUTH): 16.4% negativeRN_SR_WIND1 (LZ_SOUTH): 15.9% negativeL_FRE_ESR_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 15.6% negativeMASSENGL_G8 (LZ_WEST): 15.6% negativeLARDVFTN_G4 (LZ_SOUTH): 15.4% negativeLARDVFTN_G5 (LZ_SOUTH): 15.4% negativeNEBULA_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 15.1% negativeVANCOURT_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 15.1% negativeOWF_OWF (LZ_WEST): 14.8% negativeRN_TOSBATT (LZ_WEST): 14.7% negativeWFTANK_ESS1 (LZ_SOUTH): 14.7% negativeDKNS_ESS_RN (LZ_WEST): 14.7% negativeWAKEWE_ALL (LZ_WEST): 14.7% negativeCEDROHI_CHW1 (LZ_SOUTH): 14.6% negativeEXGNWTL_1 (LZ_SOUTH): 14.6% negativeSIL_SILAS_10 (LZ_SOUTH): 14.5% negativeSIL_SILAS_6 (LZ_SOUTH): 14.5% negativeSIL_SILAS_9 (LZ_SOUTH): 14.5% negativeNBOHR_RN (LZ_WEST): 14.5% negativeRSK_RN (LZ_WEST): 14.5% negativeLACY_CRK_ALL (LZ_WEST): 14.4% negativeSWT_BESS_RN (LZ_WEST): 14.4% negativeSTWF_T1 (LZ_WEST): 14.4% negativeTRENT_TRENT (LZ_WEST): 14.4% negativeRAT_RN_1 (LZ_WEST): 14.2% negativeELB_ELBCREEK (LZ_WEST): 14.1% negativePC_NORTH_1 (LZ_WEST): 14.1% negativePC_SOUTH_ALL (LZ_WEST): 14.1% negativeIND_INADALE1 (LZ_WEST): 14.0% negativePYR_PYRON1 (LZ_WEST): 14.0% negativeTKWSW_CHAMP (LZ_WEST): 14.0% negativeTKWSW_ROSCOE (LZ_WEST): 14.0% negativeLONEWOLF_ALL (LZ_WEST): 13.9% negativeMCDLD_FCSBW1 (LZ_WEST): 13.8% negativeBRAZ_WND_ALL (LZ_WEST): 13.8% negativeANG_ALL (LZ_WEST): 13.7% negativeRAMBLER_UNIT (LZ_WEST): 13.7% negativeNOVA1SLR_ALL (LZ_WEST): 13.7% negativeNOVA2S_UNIT1 (LZ_WEST): 13.7% negativeSWEETWN2_2_4 (LZ_WEST): 13.6% negativeSWEETWN3_3 (LZ_WEST): 13.6% negativeSWEETWND_1 (LZ_WEST): 13.6% negativeSWTWN4_WND45 (LZ_WEST): 13.6% negativeJADE_SLR_ALL (LZ_WEST): 13.6% negativeDERMOTT_ALL (LZ_WEST): 13.5% negativeRDCAN_RDCNY1 (LZ_WEST): 13.5% negativeLGD_LANGFORD (LZ_WEST): 13.4% negativeSNY_BESS_RN (LZ_WEST): 13.4% negativeCSC_CSECG1_2 (LZ_WEST): 13.4% negativeFAL_FALCONG1 (LZ_SOUTH): 13.4% negativeFAL_FALCONG2 (LZ_SOUTH): 13.4% negativeFAL_FALCONG3 (LZ_SOUTH): 13.4% negativeBRP_LOP1_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 13.4% negativeVENADO_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 13.4% negativeBRP_ZPT1_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 13.2% negativeBRP_ZPT2_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 13.2% negativeCANYONWD_ALL (LZ_WEST): 13.2% negativeEXGNSND_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 13.2% negativeREDFISH_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 13.2% negativeGALO_RN1 (LZ_WEST): 13.2% negativeMAVCRK_W_ALL (LZ_WEST): 13.2% negativeAPPALOSA_ALL (LZ_WEST): 13.2% negativeMASSENGL_G6 (LZ_WEST): 13.2% negativeMASSENGL_G7 (LZ_WEST): 13.2% negativeENDPARK_ESS1 (LZ_WEST): 13.1% negativeFLUVANNA_1_2 (LZ_WEST): 13.1% negativeFOARDCTY_ALL (LZ_WEST): 13.1% negativeANDMDSLR_ALL (LZ_WEST): 13.0% negativeAVIAT_ALL (LZ_WEST): 13.0% negativeCAPRIDG4_CR4 (LZ_WEST): 13.0% negativeCAPRIDGE_ALL (LZ_WEST): 13.0% negativeJUNO_ALL (LZ_WEST): 13.0% negativeLGDRAW_S_ALL (LZ_WEST): 13.0% negativeGOA_GOATWIND (LZ_WEST): 13.0% negativeCFLATS_UNIT (LZ_WEST): 13.0% negativeMESQCRK_ALL (LZ_WEST): 13.0% negativeSRWE1_UNIT1 (LZ_WEST): 13.0% negativeWH_WIND_ALL (LZ_WEST): 12.8% negativeTAHOKA_ALL (LZ_WEST): 12.8% negativeTRUSGILL_RN (LZ_WEST): 12.8% negativeVERAWIND_ALL (LZ_WEST): 12.8% negativeBRANDON_RN (LZ_WEST): 12.7% negativeCARBN_BSP_1 (LZ_WEST): 12.6% negativeGRDNE_ESR_RN (LZ_WEST): 12.6% negativeAMADEUS_ALL (LZ_WEST): 12.6% negativeHOLSTEIN_ALL (LZ_WEST): 12.6% negativeBULLCRK_1_2 (LZ_WEST): 12.5% negativeBLSMT1_5_A_6 (LZ_WEST): 12.5% negativeSGM_SIGNALMT (LZ_WEST): 12.4% negativeHORSECRK_RN (LZ_WEST): 12.4% negativeSALVTION_GEN (LZ_WEST): 12.4% negativeGRIF_TRL_RN (LZ_WEST): 12.4% negativeGUNMTN_NODE (LZ_WEST): 12.4% negativeBUFF_GAP_ALL (LZ_WEST): 12.2% negativeHHOLLW2_WND1 (LZ_WEST): 12.2% negativeHHOLLW3_WND1 (LZ_WEST): 12.2% negativeHHOLLW4_WND1 (LZ_WEST): 12.2% negativeH_HOLLO_WND1 (LZ_WEST): 12.2% negativeMOZART_WIND1 (LZ_WEST): 12.1% negativeT_CK_GT2_RN (LZ_WEST): 12.1% negativeT_CK_GT3_RN (LZ_WEST): 12.1% negativeRN_APOGEE (LZ_WEST): 12.0% negativeRN_RTS1 (LZ_WEST): 12.0% negativeELECTRAW_1_2 (LZ_WEST): 12.0% negativeLAMESASLR_G (LZ_WEST): 12.0% negativeGPASTURE_ALL (LZ_WEST): 12.0% negativeVERTIGO_UN1 (LZ_WEST): 12.0% negativeMWEC_G1 (LZ_WEST): 11.9% negativeANSON1_ALL (LZ_WEST): 11.9% negativePRID_RN (LZ_NORTH): 11.8% negativeRADN_SLR_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 11.8% negativeAZURE_RN (LZ_WEST): 11.8% negativeINRT_W_ALL (LZ_WEST): 11.8% negativeAGUAYO_UNIT1 (LZ_NORTH): 11.8% negativeAJAXWIND_RN (LZ_WEST): 11.7% negativeHICK_G1_G2 (LZ_WEST): 11.5% negativeWHMESA_U1 (LZ_WEST): 11.5% negativeVORT_ALL_RN (LZ_WEST): 11.5% negativeSHAMROCK_RN (LZ_WEST): 11.4% negativeLNCRK_ALL (LZ_WEST): 11.4% negativeTRINITY_ALL (LZ_WEST): 11.4% negativeRANCHERO_ALL (LZ_WEST): 11.3% negativeHI_LONE_ALL (LZ_WEST): 11.1% negativeHWF_HWFG1 (LZ_WEST): 11.1% negativeHI_LONEB_RN1 (LZ_WEST): 11.1% negativeTTWEC_G1 (LZ_WEST): 11.0% negativeFERMI_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 10.9% negativeSROSA_ESR_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 10.9% negativeYNG_WND_ALL (LZ_WEST): 10.9% negativeSHANNONW_RN (LZ_WEST): 10.8% negativeCALLAHA_WND1 (LZ_WEST): 10.8% negativeWEC_WECG1 (LZ_WEST): 10.7% negativeSOLARA_UNIT1 (LZ_WEST): 10.7% negativeWL_RANCH_RN (LZ_WEST): 10.7% negativeBAIRDWND_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 10.5% negativeFTWIND_UNIT1 (LZ_NORTH): 10.4% negativeRUSSEKST_RN (LZ_WEST): 10.4% negativeRRC_WIND_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 10.1% negativeSHEEPCRK_1 (LZ_NORTH): 10.1% negativeFALFUR_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 10.0% negativeWFCOGEN_13 (LZ_WEST): 9.9% negativeWFCOGEN_24 (LZ_WEST): 9.9% negativeGRSES_UNIT2 (LZ_WEST): 9.9% negativeREDGATE_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 9.8% negativeSENATEWD_1 (LZ_WEST): 9.8% negativeFLCNS_UNIT1 (LZ_WEST): 9.8% negativeFLCNS_UNIT2 (LZ_WEST): 9.8% negativeFLCNS_UNIT3 (LZ_WEST): 9.8% negativeOECCS_1 (LZ_WEST): 9.7% negativeOECCS_2 (LZ_WEST): 9.7% negativeQALSW_ALL (LZ_WEST): 9.6% negativeW_HRL_ESR_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 9.6% negativeODESW_RN (LZ_WEST): 9.6% negativeBCATWD_WD_1 (LZ_WEST): 9.5% negativeNED_NEDIN_G3 (LZ_SOUTH): 9.4% negativeNED_NEDIN_G1 (LZ_SOUTH): 9.3% negativeDUKE_GST1CCU (LZ_SOUTH): 9.3% negativeNED_NEDIN_G2 (LZ_SOUTH): 9.3% negativeDUKE_GT2_CCU (LZ_SOUTH): 9.3% negativeSHAFFER_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 9.3% negativePIONR_DJ_RN (LZ_WEST): 9.2% negativeANCHOR_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 9.2% negativeN_AL_BESS_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 9.1% negativeMADERO_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 9.1% negativeMYRY_ESR_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 9.1% negativeKINGE_ALL (LZ_WEST): 9.0% negativeHORSCR_RN (LZ_WEST): 9.0% negativeKEO_KEO_SM1 (LZ_WEST): 9.0% negativePAVO_ESS_ALL (LZ_WEST): 9.0% negativeELSA_ESR_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 9.0% negativeWOODWRD1_RN (LZ_WEST): 9.0% negativeWOODWRD2_RN (LZ_WEST): 9.0% negativeMV_VALV4_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 9.0% negativeCASL_GAP_UN1 (LZ_WEST): 9.0% negativeKINGW_ALL (LZ_WEST): 9.0% negativeSPTX12B_RN (LZ_WEST): 9.0% negativeTBWF_ES_BES1 (LZ_WEST): 9.0% negativeCROSSETT_ALL (LZ_WEST): 9.0% negativeFWLR_SLR_1 (LZ_WEST): 9.0% negativeFRONT_EC_RN1 (LZ_SOUTH): 8.9% negativeFRONT_EC_RN2 (LZ_SOUTH): 8.9% negativeFRONT_EC_RN3 (LZ_SOUTH): 8.9% negativeN_MRD_ESR_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 8.9% negativeSIRIUS_UNIT1 (LZ_WEST): 8.8% negativeINDNENR_2_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.8% negativeINDNNWP_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.7% negativeGREASWOD_ALL (LZ_WEST): 8.6% negativeHYDR_ESS_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.6% negativeBATCAVE_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 8.6% negativeINDNENR_1_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.6% negativeQUEEN_BA_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.6% negativeQUEEN_SL_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.6% negativeBOOTLEG_UN1 (LZ_WEST): 8.6% negativeREDBARN_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.6% negativeWAYMARK_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.6% negativeWOV_BESS_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.5% negativeJDKNS_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.5% negativeSWEC_G1 (LZ_WEST): 8.5% negativePORTSL_UNIT1 (LZ_NORTH): 8.5% negativeSG_BES_BESS1 (LZ_WEST): 8.5% negativeOBERON_U1 (LZ_WEST): 8.5% negativeRIGGIN_UNIT1 (LZ_WEST): 8.5% negativeGOMZ_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.4% negativeTRIPBUT1_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.4% negativeLV5_UNIT1 (LZ_SOUTH): 8.4% negativeGARC_BESS_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 8.3% negativeRIOG_ESR_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 8.3% negativeCONTINEN_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 8.3% negativeHOUSEMTN_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.3% negativeLASSO_GEN (LZ_WEST): 8.3% negativeHOVEY_GEN (LZ_WEST): 8.3% negativeHRBESS_BESS (LZ_WEST): 8.3% negativeREROCK_ALL (LZ_WEST): 8.3% negativeSGSA_DGR (LZ_WEST): 8.3% negativeTAYGETE2_ALL (LZ_WEST): 8.3% negativeTAYGETE_ALL (LZ_WEST): 8.3% negativeTOYAH_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.3% negativeEUNICE_ALL (LZ_WEST): 8.2% negativeFLOWERII_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.1% negativeFLTBES1 (LZ_WEST): 8.1% negativeFLVABES1_ESR (LZ_WEST): 8.1% negativeCEDRVALE_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.1% negativeGRSES_UNIT1 (LZ_WEST): 8.1% negativeS_HILLS_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.1% negativeSADLBACK_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.1% negativeCOYOTSPR_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.1% negativeFAULKNER_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.1% negativePROSPERO_ALL (LZ_WEST): 8.1% negativePRSPERO2_ALL (LZ_WEST): 8.1% negativeARAGORN_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.1% negativeTI_SOLAR_ALL (LZ_WEST): 8.1% negativeMIDWY_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.0% negativeERSL_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 8.0% negativePHOEBE_ALL (LZ_WEST): 8.0% negativeCHAL_SLR_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.0% negativeSBEAN_BESS (LZ_WEST): 8.0% negativeLONESTAR_RN (LZ_WEST): 8.0% negativeW_PECO_UNIT1 (LZ_WEST): 8.0% negativeNWF_NWF1 (LZ_WEST): 8.0% negativeRTLSNAKE_BT (LZ_WEST): 7.9% negativeRRANCHES_ALL (LZ_WEST): 7.9% negativeWRSBES_BESS1 (LZ_WEST): 7.9% negativeRN_ECEC_HOLT (LZ_WEST): 7.9% negativeBARROW_ALL (LZ_WEST): 7.9% negativeSWOOSE1_U1 (LZ_WEST): 7.8% negativeSWOOSEII_RN (LZ_WEST): 7.8% negativeLGW_UNIT_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 7.8% negativePB2SES_CT1 (LZ_WEST): 7.8% negativePB2SES_CT2 (LZ_WEST): 7.8% negativePB2SES_CT3 (LZ_WEST): 7.8% negativePB2SES_CT4 (LZ_WEST): 7.8% negativePB2SES_CT5 (LZ_WEST): 7.8% negativeLAPETUS_U1 (LZ_WEST): 7.8% negativeWNDTS2_UNIT1 (LZ_WEST): 7.2% negativeOLNEYTN_RN (LZ_WEST): 7.2% negativeMCLNSLR_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 7.0% negativeHOLCOMB_RN1 (LZ_SOUTH): 6.9% negativeAMISTAD_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 6.8% negativeHAMI_BESS_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 6.8% negativeCOTTON_PAP2 (LZ_SOUTH): 6.6% negativePAP1_PAP1 (LZ_SOUTH): 6.6% negativeCISC_RN (LZ_WEST): 6.3% negativeJUNCTION_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 6.2% negativeTYLRWIND_RN (LZ_NORTH): 6.1% negativeWHTTAIL_WR1 (LZ_NORTH): 6.1% negativeZIER_SLR_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 5.7% negativeSANTACRU_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 5.3% negativeFERGCC_GT1_1 (LZ_SOUTH): 5.3% negativeFERGCC_GT2_3 (LZ_SOUTH): 5.3% negativeFERGCC_ST1_5 (LZ_SOUTH): 5.3% negativeFOXTROT_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 5.3% negativeSPARTA_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 5.3% negativeKARAKAW1_1 (LZ_SOUTH): 5.3% negativeKARAKAW2_1 (LZ_SOUTH): 5.3% negativeALGOD_ALL_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 5.2% negativeWIR_WIRTZ_G1 (LZ_SOUTH): 5.1% negativeWIR_WIRTZ_G2 (LZ_SOUTH): 5.1% negativeBRTSW_BCW1 (LZ_NORTH): 5.0% negativeOXY_OXY_CCG1 (LZ_SOUTH): 5.0% negativeOXY_PUN1 (LZ_SOUTH): 5.0% negativeOXY_PUN2 (LZ_SOUTH): 5.0% negativeWLTC_ESR_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 4.9% negativeNUE_NUECESG7 (LZ_SOUTH): 4.9% negativeCCEC_GT1 (LZ_SOUTH): 4.9% negativeCCEC_GT2 (LZ_SOUTH): 4.9% negativeCCEC_PUN1 (LZ_SOUTH): 4.9% negativeCCEC_PUN2 (LZ_SOUTH): 4.9% negativeCCEC_ST1 (LZ_SOUTH): 4.9% negativeB_DAVIS_3 (LZ_SOUTH): 4.7% negativeB_DAVIS_4 (LZ_SOUTH): 4.7% negativeB_D_B_DAVIG1 (LZ_SOUTH): 4.7% negativeB_D_B_DAVIG2 (LZ_SOUTH): 4.7% negativeNUE_NUECESG8 (LZ_SOUTH): 4.7% negativeNUE_NUECESG9 (LZ_SOUTH): 4.7% negativeGWEC_G1 (LZ_NORTH): 4.6% negativeFLTCK_SSI (LZ_NORTH): 4.6% negativePOTSVIL_RN (LZ_NORTH): 4.6% negativeWHITE_PT_UN1 (LZ_SOUTH): 4.6% negativeINKS_INKS_G1 (LZ_SOUTH): 4.5% negativeHRZN_SLR_UN1 (LZ_SOUTH): 4.4% negativeMARBFA (LZ_SOUTH): 4.3% negativeCRWN_SLR_UN1 (LZ_NORTH): 4.3% negativeGOLINDA_UN1 (LZ_NORTH): 4.3% negativeJACKCNTY_CT1 (LZ_NORTH): 4.2% negativeJACKCNTY_CT2 (LZ_NORTH): 4.2% negativeJACKCNTY_STG (LZ_NORTH): 4.2% negativeKEECHI_U1 (LZ_NORTH): 4.2% negativeBLACKJAK_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 4.2% negativeCRANELL_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 4.2% negativeWCPP_CT1 (LZ_NORTH): 4.2% negativeWCPP_CT2 (LZ_NORTH): 4.2% negativeWCPP_ST1 (LZ_NORTH): 4.2% negativeJCKCNTY2_CT3 (LZ_NORTH): 4.2% negativeJCKCNTY2_CT4 (LZ_NORTH): 4.2% negativeJCKCNTY2_ST2 (LZ_NORTH): 4.2% negativeBRP_PBL1_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 4.1% negativeBRP_PBL2_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 4.1% negativeANACACHO_ANA (LZ_SOUTH): 4.0% negativeJC_BAT_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 4.0% negativeHHGT_KENDAL (LZ_SOUTH): 4.0% negativeCATARINA_B1 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.9% negativeECLIPSE_UN1 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.9% negativeMNWL_BESS_RN (LZ_NORTH): 3.8% negativeMIL_MILG1_2 (LZ_NORTH): 3.8% negativeMIL_MILG345 (LZ_NORTH): 3.8% negativeBUCKTHRN_RN (LZ_NORTH): 3.7% negativeBELM_SLR_RN (LZ_NORTH): 3.7% negativeCHISMGRD_RN (LZ_NORTH): 3.6% negativeAQUI_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 3.6% negativeMERCURY_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 3.6% negativeSUNVASLR_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 3.6% negativeBUCHAN_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 3.6% negativeCORALSLR_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 3.5% negativeDILEOS_UNIT1 (LZ_NORTH): 3.5% negativeBOSQ_BSQS_34 (LZ_NORTH): 3.5% negativeRIPPEY_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 3.5% negativeCOL_COLETOG1 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.4% negativeRN_DEC_AGR_A (LZ_NORTH): 3.4% negativeRN_DEC_AGR_B (LZ_NORTH): 3.4% negativeRN_DEC_AGR_C (LZ_NORTH): 3.4% negativeRN_DEC_AGR_D (LZ_NORTH): 3.4% negativeSCES_UNIT1 (LZ_NORTH): 3.4% negativeSPNC_SPNCE_4 (LZ_NORTH): 3.4% negativeSPNC_SPNCE_5 (LZ_NORTH): 3.4% negativeWND_WHITNEY (LZ_NORTH): 3.4% negativePEARSA_1_24 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.3% negativeBOSQ_BSQSU_5 (LZ_NORTH): 3.3% negativeBOSQ_BSQS_12 (LZ_NORTH): 3.3% negativePHILLWND_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 3.2% negativeINGLCOSW_STG (LZ_SOUTH): 3.2% negativeINGLCOS_CTG1 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.2% negativeINGLCOS_CTG2 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.2% negativeINGLCO_PUN1 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.2% negativeINGLCO_PUN2 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.2% negativeINGLCO_PUN3 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.2% negativeLGE_LGE_GT1 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.2% negativeLGE_LGE_GT2 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.2% negativeLGE_LGE_STG (LZ_SOUTH): 3.2% negativeDC2SES_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 3.1% negativeCPSES_UNIT1 (LZ_NORTH): 3.0% negativeCPSES_UNIT2 (LZ_NORTH): 3.0% negativeHELIOS_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeNOBLESLR_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 3.0% negativeEIFSLR_UNIT1 (LZ_NORTH): 3.0% negativeFORMOSA_PUN2 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeFO_FORMOSA12 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeFO_FORMOSG1 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeFO_FORMOSG10 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeFO_FORMOSG13 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeFO_FORMOSG14 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeFO_FORMOSG15 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeFO_FORMOSG2 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeFO_FORMOSG3 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeFO_FORMOSG4 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeFO_FORMOSG5 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeFO_FORMOSG6 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeFO_FORMOSG7 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeFO_FORMOSG8 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeFO_FORMOSG9 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeROSELAND_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 3.0% negativeHMNG_ESS_RN (LZ_NORTH): 3.0% negativeCBEC_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeWHCCS2_4 (LZ_NORTH): 3.0% negativeWHCCS2_5_6 (LZ_NORTH): 3.0% negativeWHCCS_CT1_ST (LZ_NORTH): 3.0% negativeWHCCS_CT2 (LZ_NORTH): 3.0% negativeBRIGHTSD_U1 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeCALHOUN_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeDAG_ALL (LZ_HOUSTON): 3.0% negativePANDA_T1_CT1 (LZ_NORTH): 3.0% negativePANDA_T1_CT2 (LZ_NORTH): 3.0% negativePANDA_T1_ST1 (LZ_NORTH): 3.0% negativePANDA_T2_CT1 (LZ_NORTH): 3.0% negativePANDA_T2_CT2 (LZ_NORTH): 3.0% negativePANDA_T2_ST1 (LZ_NORTH): 3.0% negativeTREB_SOLAR1 (LZ_SOUTH): 3.0% negativeTGS_GT01 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.9% negativeTAV_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.9% negativeFO_FORMOSA11 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.9% negativeWILDWIND_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 2.9% negativeFORMOSA_PUN1 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.9% negativeTNSKA_CCU (LZ_NORTH): 2.8% negativeSBE_RN_1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.7% negativeIMP_RN1 (LZ_NORTH): 2.6% negativeLPCCS_CT21 (LZ_NORTH): 2.6% negativeESTONIAN_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 2.6% negativeSAN_SANMIGG1 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.6% negativeTEN_CT1_STG (LZ_NORTH): 2.6% negativeBAKE_RN_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 2.6% negativeLPCCS_CT11 (LZ_NORTH): 2.5% negativeNCARBIDEG8 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.5% negativeNCARBIDE_1_7 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.5% negativeNCARBID_PUN1 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.5% negativeNCARBID_PUN2 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.5% negativeHLSES_UNIT3 (LZ_NORTH): 2.5% negativeHLSES_UNIT4 (LZ_NORTH): 2.5% negativeHLSES_UNIT5 (LZ_NORTH): 2.5% negativeSTP_STP_G1 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.4% negativeSTP_STP_G2 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.4% negativePANDA_S_CT1 (LZ_NORTH): 2.4% negativePANDA_S_CT2 (LZ_NORTH): 2.4% negativePANDA_S_ST1 (LZ_NORTH): 2.4% negativeVIC_VICTORG5 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.4% negativeCITYVICT_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 2.4% negativeDUP_PUN1 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.4% negativeDUP_PUN2 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.4% negativeDUP_PUN3 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.4% negativeDUP_PUN4 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.4% negativeVICTPORT_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 2.4% negativeVIC_VICTORG6 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.4% negativeLPCCS_CT22 (LZ_NORTH): 2.4% negativeDENISON_G1_2 (LZ_NORTH): 2.4% negativePTLBES_BESS1 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.4% negativePITSDD_UNIT1 (LZ_NORTH): 2.3% negativeBRP_LOOP_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 2.3% negativeNF_BRP_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 2.3% negativeROW_ALL (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.2% negativeVLSES_UNIT3 (LZ_NORTH): 2.2% negativeWAP_WAP_G8 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.2% negativeBVE_UNIT1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.2% negativeBVE_UNIT2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.2% negativeBVE_UNIT3 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.2% negativeETCCS_CCU (LZ_NORTH): 2.2% negativeRAB_G1-8 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.2% negativeCONIGLIO_RN (LZ_NORTH): 2.2% negativeRAYB_G78910 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.2% negativeFILESSLR_PV1 (LZ_NORTH): 2.2% negativePEY_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.2% negativeHOL_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 2.2% negativeLPCCS_CT12 (LZ_NORTH): 2.2% negativeLPCCS_UNIT1 (LZ_NORTH): 2.2% negativeLPCCS_UNIT2 (LZ_NORTH): 2.2% negativeMDANP_CT3_4 (LZ_NORTH): 2.2% negativePHOENIX_RN (LZ_NORTH): 2.2% negativeBCK_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.2% negativeDAN_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 2.1% negativePLN_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 2.1% negativeBR_ARROW_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 2.1% negativeFRMRSVLW_RN (LZ_NORTH): 2.1% negativeBRP_RN_UNIT1 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.1% negativeFIVEWSLR_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 2.1% negativeHOPKNSLR_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 2.1% negativePSA_PSA_G1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.1% negativePSA_PSA_G2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.1% negativePSA_PSA_G4 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.1% negativePSA_PUN3 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.1% negativePSA_PUN4 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.1% negativeMDANP_CT5_6 (LZ_NORTH): 2.1% negativeSAMSON_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 2.1% negativeSTAM_SLR_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 2.1% negativeTTRSW_RN (LZ_NORTH): 2.1% negativeBRA_AVR1_CT2 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.1% negativeBRA_AVR_CST1 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.1% negativeLHSES_UNIT1 (LZ_NORTH): 2.1% negativeLHSES_UNIT2 (LZ_NORTH): 2.1% negativeMDANP_CT1_2 (LZ_NORTH): 2.1% negativeELS_RN_1 (LZ_NORTH): 2.1% negativePSA_PSA_G3 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.1% negativePSA_PUN5 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.1% negativeLEONLCPCT1_2 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.1% negativeLEONLCPCT3_4 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.1% negativePSA_PSA_G5 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.1% negativePHO_ALL (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.0% negativePSA_PSA_G6 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.0% negativePSA_PSA_G7 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.0% negativePSA_PUN1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.0% negativePSA_PUN2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.0% negativeRN_OCI_ALAMO (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativeX443ESRN (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativeBRAUNIG_VHB3 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativeCBECII_89 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.0% negativeCBECII_CT7 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.0% negativeGID_GIDEONG3 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativeCALAVER_JKS1 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativeCALAVER_JKS2 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativeMCSES_UNIT6 (LZ_NORTH): 2.0% negativeMCSES_UNIT7 (LZ_NORTH): 2.0% negativeMCSES_UNIT8 (LZ_NORTH): 2.0% negativeBRAUNIG_VHB1 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativeBRAUNIG_VHB2 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativeCHAMON_UN1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.0% negativeCHAMON_UN2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.0% negativeLHM_CVC_G4 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.0% negativeLHM_PUN1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.0% negativeLHM_PUN2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.0% negativeLIG_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 2.0% negativeEBNY_ESS_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativeCALAVER_JTD1 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativeCALAVER_JTD2 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativeCALAVER_OWS1 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativeCALAVER_OWS2 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativeBR_VHB6CT5_6 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativeBR_VHB6CT7_8 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativeTURQ_BESS1 (LZ_NORTH): 2.0% negativeMUSTNGCK_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativeOLIN_OLING_1 (LZ_NORTH): 2.0% negativeOLIN_OLING_2 (LZ_NORTH): 2.0% negativeOLIN_OLING_3 (LZ_NORTH): 2.0% negativeOLIN_OLING_4 (LZ_NORTH): 2.0% negativeSTEAM_ENG123 (LZ_NORTH): 2.0% negativeSTEA_STEAM_1 (LZ_NORTH): 2.0% negativeSTEA_STEAM_2 (LZ_NORTH): 2.0% negativeSTEA_STEAM_3 (LZ_NORTH): 2.0% negativeGID_GIDEONG1 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativeGID_GIDEONG2 (LZ_SOUTH): 2.0% negativePAVLOV_BT_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 1.9% negativeBAYC_BESS_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 1.9% negativeHALO_RN1 (LZ_NORTH): 1.9% negativeTGCCS_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 1.9% negativeFRNYPP_1_CCU (LZ_NORTH): 1.9% negativeFRNYPP_2_CCU (LZ_NORTH): 1.9% negativeGUADG_CCU1 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.9% negativeGUADG_CCU2 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.9% negativeMLSES_UNIT1 (LZ_NORTH): 1.9% negativeMLSES_UNIT2 (LZ_NORTH): 1.9% negativeMLSES_UNIT3 (LZ_NORTH): 1.9% negativeLBRA_BES1 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.9% negativeGIGA_ESS_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 1.9% negativeLILY_RN (LZ_NORTH): 1.9% negativeLON_RN1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.9% negativeAURO_SLR_RN (LZ_NORTH): 1.9% negative7RNCHSLR_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 1.9% negativeSLCN_ESS_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 1.9% negativeCHE_LYD (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeCHE_LYD2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeCHE_PUN1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeCHE_PUN2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeDOWGEN_PUN1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeDOWGEN_PUN2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeDOWGEN_PUN3 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeDOW_61_2_63 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeDOW_64 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeDOW_81_2_84 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeDOW_G37_G35 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeDOW_G66_ST65 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeDOW_G67 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeDOW_G96_ST95 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeE_BLACK_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeJAY_RN_1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeRIONOG_CT1 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeRIONOG_CT2 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeRIONOG_CT3 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeRIONOG_ST1 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeWEBBER_WS_T1 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeCHEDPW_GT2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeCVC_CVCG1_5 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeCVC_CVC_G2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeCVC_CVC_G3 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeFENCESLR_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 1.8% negativeAUSTPL_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeMAR_MARSFOG1 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeMAR_MARSFOG2 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeMAR_MARSFOG3 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeRVRVLYS_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeWIPOPA_1_2 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeWIPOPA_3_4 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeDECKER_GT (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeDIBOL_RN (LZ_NORTH): 1.8% negativeFPPYD_FPP_G1 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeFPPYD_FPP_G2 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeFPPYD_FPP_G3 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeHAYSEN1_2 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeHAYSEN3_4 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeLFSTH_RN (LZ_NORTH): 1.8% negativeSANDHSYD1_2 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeSANDHSYD3_4 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeSANDHSYD6_7 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeSANDHSYD_5AC (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeFREC_2_CCU (LZ_NORTH): 1.8% negativeKELAMSL_U1 (LZ_NORTH): 1.8% negativeNACPW_UNIT1 (LZ_NORTH): 1.8% negativePAULN_RN (LZ_NORTH): 1.8% negativeSC2SES_UNIT1 (LZ_NORTH): 1.8% negativeSCSES_UNIT2 (LZ_NORTH): 1.8% negativeSTRATEGC_RN (LZ_NORTH): 1.8% negativeTRSES_UNIT6 (LZ_NORTH): 1.8% negativeVISION_RN (LZ_NORTH): 1.8% negativeWAP_WAP_G7 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeBOARDCRK_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 1.8% negativePISG_RN_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 1.8% negativeRHESS2_ESS1 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeSKY1 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.8% negativeBCH_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeMYR_ALL (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeLMO_ESR_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.8% negativeALVIN_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.7% negativeBIGSTAR_ALL (LZ_SOUTH): 1.7% negativeFREC_1_CCU (LZ_NORTH): 1.7% negativeLOS_LOSTPGT1 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.7% negativeLOS_LOSTPGT2 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.7% negativeLOS_LOSTPST1 (LZ_SOUTH): 1.7% negativeTORT_ESS_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.7% negativeFTR_FTR_G1_4 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.7% negativeWAP_WAP_G6 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.7% negativeBASTEN_CCU (LZ_SOUTH): 1.7% negativeEBELLS_UNIT1 (LZ_NORTH): 1.7% negativeBLUEJAY_RN (LZ_NORTH): 1.7% negativeGBY_GT (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.7% negativeLEG_LEG_G1 (LZ_NORTH): 1.7% negativeLEG_LEG_G2 (LZ_NORTH): 1.7% negativeATK_ATKINSG7 (LZ_NORTH): 1.7% negativeBRPANGLE_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.7% negativeBRP_BRAZ_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.7% negativeDANSBY_ALL (LZ_NORTH): 1.7% negativeGAMBIT_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.7% negativeMAND_SLR_RN (LZ_NORTH): 1.6% negativeBSS_U1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeDA_BESS (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeNCO_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeRPUBRDS_RN (LZ_NORTH): 1.6% negativeSCLP_PUN1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeSCLP_PUN2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeSCLP_PUN3 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeSCLP_PUN4 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeSCLP_SCLPC_1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeSCLP_SCLPC_2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeSCLP_SCLPC_3 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeSCLP_SCLPC_4 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeWES_ALL (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeBRP_SWNY_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeBTM_ALL (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeBYRDR_ES_ALL (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeOGSES_1 (LZ_NORTH): 1.6% negativeOGSES_2 (LZ_NORTH): 1.6% negativeCRAWFISH_RN (LZ_SOUTH): 1.6% negativeTHW_THWGT5X (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeTHW_THWGT_1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeTNP_TNP_O_1 (LZ_NORTH): 1.6% negativeTNP_TNP_O_2 (LZ_NORTH): 1.6% negativeTHW_1_CCU (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeTHW_2_CCU (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeWGU_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.6% negativeRBN_BESS1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeTC_PUN1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeTC_PUN2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeTC_TCHP1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeFEGC_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativePRO_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeTV_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativePNPI_GT2_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativePR_PR_ALL (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeWAP_WAPGT_1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeWAP_WAP_G1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeWAP_WAP_G2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeWAP_WAP_G3 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeWAP_WAP_G4 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeWAP_WAP_G5 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeMAINLAND_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeOR_BESS_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBYU_BYU_1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBYU_BYU_12 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBYU_BYU_34 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBYU_G4_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBYU_PUN1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBYU_PUN2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBYU_PUN3 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBYU_PUN4 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeDDPEC_GT1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeDDPEC_GT2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeDDPEC_GT3 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeDDPEC_GT4 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeDDPEC_GT6 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeDDPEC_ST1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeMIRAGE_G1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeRN_BYU_G8 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeSJS_SJS_G1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeSJS_SJS_G2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeAMOCO_PUN1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeAMOCO_PUN2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeAMO_AMOCO_1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeAMO_AMOCO_2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeAMO_AMOCO_5 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeAMO_AMOCO_G1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeAMO_AMOCO_G2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeAMO_AMOCO_G3 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeAMO_AMOCO_S1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeAMO_AMOCO_S2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBAC_RN_ALL (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBRHEIGHT_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBRP_DIKN_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeDIB_DIB_G1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeDIB_DIB_G2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeDIB_DIB_G3 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeDIB_DIB_G4 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeDIB_PUN1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeDIB_PUN2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeTOPAZ_ALL (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeTXCTY_CTA (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeTXCTY_CTB (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeTXCTY_CTC (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeTXCTY_ST (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeUCC_COG_PUN2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeUCC_UCC_C_2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeAZ_ALL (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBRPMAGNO_RN (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBTE_BTE_G1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBTE_BTE_G2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBTE_BTE_G3 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBTE_BTE_G4 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBTE_PUN1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeBTE_PUN2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeCAL_CALGT1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeCAL_CALSTG1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeCAL_PUN1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeCAL_PUN2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeCBY4_ALL (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeCBY_CBY_G1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeCBY_CBY_G2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeEXN_14 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeEXN_1_3 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeEXN_4 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeEXN_8 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeEXN_9_13 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeEXN_PUN1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeEXN_PUN2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativeEXN_PUN3 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativePSG_PSG_GT2 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativePSG_PSG_GT3 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativePSG_PSG_ST1 (LZ_HOUSTON): 1.5% negativemax node 23.7% (ASTRA_RN, West)
Settlement pointZoneNegative shareGroup
ASTRA_RNLZ_WEST23.7%West
HRFDWIND_ALLLZ_WEST23.7%West
MARIAH_ALLLZ_WEST23.7%West
CN_BRKS_UNT1LZ_WEST23.5%West
COTPLNS_RNLZ_WEST23.4%West
SPLAIN1_RNLZ_WEST23.4%West
SPLAIN2_RNLZ_WEST23.4%West
SSPURT_WIND1LZ_WEST23.4%West
FRYE_SLR_ALLLZ_WEST23.4%West
GOODNIT1_ALLLZ_WEST23.2%West
  • Node zone membership is a settlement construct; the nodes are NOT geolocated here.
  • Distribution covers full-coverage nodes only (>=90% of the year's hours).
  • Hub (HB_WEST) is the conservative zonal anchor; nodal shares run higher.
  • Geocoding verdict (2026-06-12): no capture-quality coordinate source exists for the settlement-point universe. MIS report 10008 carries zero geographic fields, and ERCOT's contour-map KMLs were discontinued in 2021 at ~27% node coverage; the strip stays non-geographic.
Market context

Market pricing shows where compute scarcity is repricing

Use the tape as an early-warning screen, and move procurement terms only when the tape changes the case. Public equities reprice the same bottleneck in real time: suppliers, buyers, power owners, equipment backlogs. The case moves when those prices change what can be delivered, what financing costs, or who holds pricing power.

  • NVDA marginvendor margin pool the compute stack pays into.
  • MU / memoryHBM, DRAM, and data-center SSD supply around the accelerator rack.
  • AVGO / MRVLcustom silicon and networking exposure around accelerator interconnect.
  • INTC / ARMhost CPU supply and architecture exposure around the rack.
  • SMCI / DELL / HPErack-scale server supply and integration capacity.
  • WDC / STXstorage-media cycle behind data-center capacity.
  • AMZN / Trainiumcustom accelerator economics and cloud procurement exposure.
  • Hyperscaler capexabsorption record for whether demand can be financed and built.
  • CEG / VSTpower leg repricing around scarce deliverable megawatts.
  • ETN backlogGrid-equipment constraint behind delivery timing.

Constraint tape

The values that change the operating call

pinned
PJM capacity price shock9.33x

RTO clearing price moved from $28.92 to $269.92 per MW-day, then held above $333.44 in the next two delivery years.

Demand absorption record$434B

Aggregate hyperscaler capex exits 2026Q1 with 30.6% median y/y growth; the base load path still sits above the historical capex envelope.

Fuel leg1.0103x

Fabrication composite at 2026-05. The feed proxy is 1.1561x; conversion and SWU pending. 66% live-weight coverage is priced.

Risk tape3 of 8

Priced factors move the readout from 68.0% to 48.0%. The discount driver stays on construction timing; the priced composite proved unstable in backtests.

Rao sworn floors$60B+

Revenue floor $5B+, compute spend $10B+, and outside capital $60B+ keep the demand case anchored below the headline run rate.

PJM surplus hours90.4%

PJM's surplus hours carry 12 TWh of energy in the Jan-Jul window. Useful energy still has to clear transfer, congestion, and site absorption.

ERCOT nodal tail23.7%

West-Texas resource nodes approach the 25% negative-hour band, but no full-coverage node crosses it. LZ West median: 11.8%.

Retired-nuclear screen30 rows

Zion leads the screen at 2,145 MW equivalent. It remains a diligence queue; a portfolio cap needs absorption proof first.

The tape keeps each feed tied to its own decision, from timing carry to siting diligence.

Live financing tape

Credit and rates move while the page stays open

pinned
BAMLH0A0HYM2

HY OAS

2.66%

2026-06-19 · fresh baseline

FOAK / credit-risk pressure around financing windows
BAA10Y

BAA - 10Y

1.51%

2026-06-18 · fresh baseline

Investment-grade spread pressure around long-duration obligations
DGS10

DGS10

4.46%

2026-06-18 · fresh baseline

Treasury-rate base for financing-cost context

The risk tape already uses these three series. If the upstream feed is unavailable, the panel holds the last pinned observation and labels it pinned.

Live FMP workspace

Live pricing across the constraint chain

Accelerator and memory suppliers show the hardware constraint, hyperscalers show the buyer capex bid, and power and equipment names show whether the grid leg is repricing while delivery gates move.

Read the full chain from chips to buyers to power delivery.

Universe tape

Pending
Peer financial compare
PeerGross marginCapexFCFEV / sales
Peer financials are pending.

NVDA historical scrub

Pending

Historical prices are pending.

NVIDIA

NVDA

accelerator supply, gross margin, and data-center demand

Market cap PendingGross margin PendingCapex PendingFCF Pending
Analyst target scenario

Upside recomputes from the selected live quote against the FMP consensus, high, or low analyst target. Missing target fields stay pending.

consensus target Pending | upside Pending

Multi-year financials

Cash PendingTotal debt PendingLatest revenue PendingLatest FCF PendingRevenue growth PendingFCF growth Pending
Fiscal yearRevenueOperating incomeCapexFCFRevenue growthFCF growth
Financial statements are pending.
Files

Cost path and assumption files

Cost relief comes from delivered power. Announced capacity buys nothing. Download the workbook for the formulas and sensitivities, or the notebook to rebuild the trajectory from output rows to the headline numbers.

Compute Capital Stack Excel workbookXLSXCompute Capital Stack Jupyter notebookIPYNB

The prices are planning outputs; none is executable. The level is a stated assumption, and the decision is the timing and shape of cost relief. The inputs combine filed figures, disclosed contracts, and estimates labeled at the point of use. Demand volume cases use company-stated run-rate figures ($9B to $30B*) bounded below by a court-sworn recognized-revenue floor ($5B); figures marked * are not independently verified. Record dates are printed beside each exhibit, and the Excel workbook carries the formulas.