PepsiCo / Keurig Dr Pepper transaction valuation

PepsiCo, Inc. / Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ: PEP, KDP) · April 2026 · University of Utah MSF

Would PepsiCo buying Keurig Dr Pepper create enough ROE improvement to justify paying up? I combine standalone KDP DCF, beverage trading comparables, precedent transactions, accretion and dilution, contribution bridges, ownership mix, and synergy timing, then the deck pushes the investment call: a $32 to $43 per share range, 60/40 stock and debt mix, a 40.2% premium test, and the execution hurdle behind the deal math.

	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M
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2	Comparable Company Analysis
3	Expanded beverage peers \| Latest annual actuals + forward annual consensus
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5	Company	Market Cap ($M)	EV ($M)	Revenue ($M)	EBITDA ($M)	EV/Revenue	EV/EBITDA	P/E
6	Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)	38,040	53,155	16,603	4,194	3.2	12.7	18.3
7	Coca-Cola Co (KO)	300,823	336,045	47,941	18,702	7.0	18.0	23.0
8	PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)	196,596	237,338	93,925	15,543	2.5	15.3	23.9
9	Monster Beverage (MNST)	74,821	72,733	8,294	2,604	8.8	27.9	39.3
10	Celsius Holdings (CELH)	10,758	11,029	2,515	203	4.4	54.2	99.6
11	Coca-Cola Consol. (COKE)	11,292	14,012	7,228	1,171	1.9	12.0	19.8
12	National Beverage (FIZZ)	4,156	4,034	1,201	256	3.4	15.7	22.2
13	Molson Coors (TAP)	9,107	14,510	11,141	-1,611	1.3	-9.0	-4.3
14	Vita Coco (COCO)	3,017	2,833	610	84	4.6	33.8	42.3
15	AB InBev (BUD)	127,055	188,444	59,504	20,762	3.2	9.1	18.5
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17	Peer Median (excl. KDP)					3.4	16.9	23.4
18	Peer Mean (excl. KDP)					4.1	23.2	36.1
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20	Implied KDP Valuation	EV/Revenue	EV/EBITDA	P/E
21	Implied Value (Median, $M)	55,757	70,694	48,659
22	Implied Share Price (Median)	$29.82	$40.78	$35.71
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24	EV Multiples by Peer (Chart)
25	Company	EV/Revenue	EV/EBITDA
26	KDP	3.2	12.7
27	KO	7.0	18.0
28	PEP	2.5	15.3
29	MNST	8.8	27.9
30	CELH	4.4	54.2
31	COKE	1.9	12.0
32	FIZZ	3.4	15.7
33	TAP	1.3	-9.0
34	COCO	4.6	33.8
35	BUD	3.2	9.1
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37
38
39	Forward Annual Estimate Detail											*FMP annual consensus where available; COKE uses labeled fallback estimates beyond the nearest available annual endpoint.
40	c	Ticker	FY End	Basis	Revenue ($M)	EBITDA ($M)	EBIT ($M)	Net Income ($M)	EPS	Rev Ests	EPS Ests	Notes
41	Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)	KDP	2026-12-31	FMP annual consensus	26,145	6,688	5,391	3,012	2.26	10	8	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
42	Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)	KDP	2027-12-31	FMP annual consensus	29,736	7,606	6,132	3,338	2.48	10	8	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
43	Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)	KDP	2028-12-31	FMP annual consensus	30,684	7,849	6,327	3,635	2.62	6	3	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
44	Coca-Cola Co (KO)	KO	2026-12-31	FMP annual consensus	48,960	17,520	18,751	13,899	3.22	13	13	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
45	Coca-Cola Co (KO)	KO	2027-12-31	FMP annual consensus	49,710	17,788	19,038	14,919	3.45	15	13	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
46	Coca-Cola Co (KO)	KO	2028-12-31	FMP annual consensus	52,238	18,692	20,006	15,469	3.69	10	6	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
47	Coca-Cola Co (KO)	KO	2029-12-31	FMP annual consensus	53,539	19,158	20,504	16,969	3.93	5	4	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
48	Coca-Cola Co (KO)	KO	2030-12-31	FMP annual consensus	56,899	20,360	21,791	18,071	4.19	5	2	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
49	PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)	PEP	2026-12-27	FMP annual consensus	98,458	17,319	13,324	11,816	8.61	15	12	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
50	PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)	PEP	2027-12-27	FMP annual consensus	101,548	17,863	13,742	12,352	9.17	17	14	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
51	PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)	PEP	2028-12-27	FMP annual consensus	105,238	18,512	14,241	12,216	9.84	12	5	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
52	PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)	PEP	2029-12-27	FMP annual consensus	106,864	18,798	14,461	13,651	9.94	7	1	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
53	PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)	PEP	2030-12-27	FMP annual consensus	112,485	19,787	15,222	14,650	10.67	11	1	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
54	Monster Beverage (MNST)	MNST	2026-12-31	FMP annual consensus	9,215	2,690	2,593	2,206	2.26	18	10	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
55	Monster Beverage (MNST)	MNST	2027-12-31	FMP annual consensus	10,008	2,922	2,816	2,483	2.54	17	9	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
56	Monster Beverage (MNST)	MNST	2028-12-31	FMP annual consensus	10,872	3,174	3,059	2,735	2.85	14	8	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
57	Monster Beverage (MNST)	MNST	2029-12-31	FMP annual consensus	10,716	3,128	3,015	2,729	2.77	9	6	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
58	Monster Beverage (MNST)	MNST	2030-12-31	FMP annual consensus	13,197	3,853	3,713	3,603	3.66	13	6	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
59	Celsius Holdings (CELH)	CELH	2026-12-31	FMP annual consensus	3,382	107	89	406	1.61	17	14	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
60	Celsius Holdings (CELH)	CELH	2027-12-31	FMP annual consensus	3,717	118	98	509	2.03	18	15	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
61	Celsius Holdings (CELH)	CELH	2028-12-31	FMP annual consensus	4,044	128	107	617	2.33	11	6	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
62	Celsius Holdings (CELH)	CELH	2029-12-31	FMP annual consensus	4,246	134	112	571	2.41	5	4	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
63	Celsius Holdings (CELH)	CELH	2030-12-31	FMP annual consensus	4,561	144	120	634	2.67	5	2	Forward annual analyst consensus from FMP stable analyst-estimates.
64	Coca-Cola Consol. (COKE)	COKE	2025-12-31	FMP annual endpoint	7,228	1,774	1,570	0	0.00	1	0
65	Coca-Cola Consol. (COKE)	COKE	2026-12-31	Estimated fallback	7,517	1,225	1,000	601	7.18
66	Coca-Cola Consol. (COKE)	COKE	2027-12-31	Estimated fallback	7,780	1,276	1,043	630	7.52
67	Coca-Cola Consol. (COKE)	COKE	2028-12-31	Estimated fallback	8,014	1,322	1,082	657	7.84
68	National Beverage (FIZZ)	FIZZ	2026-04-30	FMP annual consensus	1,180	248	220	188	2.00	1	1
69	National Beverage (FIZZ)	FIZZ	2027-04-30	FMP annual consensus	1,219	257	228	189	2.01	1	1
70	National Beverage (FIZZ)	FIZZ	2028-04-30	FMP annual consensus	1,227	258	229	198	2.11	1	1
71	Molson Coors (TAP)	TAP	2026-12-31	FMP annual consensus	11,132	1,255	522	920	4.70	14	12
72	Molson Coors (TAP)	TAP	2027-12-31	FMP annual consensus	11,148	1,257	523	930	4.98	13	12
73	Molson Coors (TAP)	TAP	2028-12-31	FMP annual consensus	11,219	1,265	527	951	5.37	13	6
74	Molson Coors (TAP)	TAP	2029-12-31	FMP annual consensus	11,281	1,272	529	1,142	5.84	12	4
75	Molson Coors (TAP)	TAP	2030-12-31	FMP annual consensus	11,561	1,303	543	1,202	6.14	6	2
76	Vita Coco (COCO)	COCO	2026-12-31	FMP annual consensus	696	171	173	92	1.55	7	5
77	Vita Coco (COCO)	COCO	2027-12-31	FMP annual consensus	778	192	193	107	1.80	7	5
78	Vita Coco (COCO)	COCO	2028-12-31	FMP annual consensus	868	214	216	125	2.04	3	3
79	Vita Coco (COCO)	COCO	2029-12-31	FMP annual consensus	936	230	233	137	2.29	2	1
80	Vita Coco (COCO)	COCO	2030-12-31	FMP annual consensus	1,026	253	255	152	2.53	1	1
81	AB InBev (BUD)	BUD	2026-12-31	FMP annual consensus	63,473	23,792	17,476	8,463	4.27	15	8
82	AB InBev (BUD)	BUD	2027-12-31	FMP annual consensus	65,771	24,653	18,109	9,449	4.76	15	8
83	AB InBev (BUD)	BUD	2028-12-31	FMP annual consensus	68,108	25,529	18,753	10,562	5.32	6	7
84	AB InBev (BUD)	BUD	2029-12-31	FMP annual consensus	72,413	27,143	19,938	11,830	5.96	11	6
85	AB InBev (BUD)	BUD	2030-12-31	FMP annual consensus	75,481	28,293	20,783	14,140	7.13	7	6
86
87	Source: Financial Modeling Prep /stable/ API \| dday Analysis \| 2026-04-13 \| Headline valuation output updates from the expanded median peer set. Negative TAP EV/EBITDA and P/E are shown in the table but excluded from the headline median and mean calculations. COKE forward rows are labeled fallback estimates due to thin FMP coverage.